What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

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What chance do you think there is we will see a season 4?

Very unlikely
11
13%
Unlikely
26
32%
50/50
29
35%
Likely
10
12%
Very likely
6
7%
 
Total votes: 82
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Mr. Reindeer
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby Mr. Reindeer » Sat Jun 02, 2018 9:02 am

I really don’t think anyone is hiding the ball here. I believe Showtime when they say they’ll be happy to produce the show if and whenever DKL comes to them, and I believe L/F that they’ll do it if and when they have the right idea. I haven’t seen any indication that they HAVE had that idea yet. They may well be writing in secret again, but I see no reason to get my hopes up that an annoucement is at all imminent when we have zero proof. Which is why i voted 50/50.

Aside from the unfortunate factor of DKL’s mortality, I think the franchise is in an ideal position. Showtime values the prestige and critical street cred they’ve gained by having the show in their stable, but since the show wasn’t exactly a runaway success financially, there’s no pressure to crank out another season for the sheer sake of doing it and creating an inferior product. We’ll get another season if and when all parties involved decide there’s a good artistic reason to do so...which is the way film and TV production SHOULD work in a perfect world.
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yaxomoxay
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby yaxomoxay » Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:44 am

Mr. Reindeer wrote:I really don’t think anyone is hiding the ball here. I believe Showtime when they say they’ll be happy to produce the show if and whenever DKL comes to them, and I believe L/F that they’ll do it if and when they have the right idea. I haven’t seen any indication that they HAVE had that idea yet. They may well be writing in secret again, but I see no reason to get my hopes up that an annoucement is at all imminent when we have zero proof. Which is why i voted 50/50.

Aside from the unfortunate factor of DKL’s mortality, I think the franchise is in an ideal position. Showtime values the prestige and critical street cred they’ve gained by having the show in their stable, but since the show wasn’t exactly a runaway success financially, there’s no pressure to crank out another season for the sheer sake of doing it and creating an inferior product. We’ll get another season if and when all parties involved decide there’s a good artistic reason to do so...which is the way film and TV production SHOULD work in a perfect world.


1) didn’t showtime say that TP was a success and it really helped CBS’s revenue?
2) you have no proof of Lynch’s mortality. Come back when you do.... ;)


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Mr. Reindeer
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby Mr. Reindeer » Sat Jun 02, 2018 12:16 pm

I tend to be skeptical that TP was financially rewarding for Showtime — based on the information we’ve been given, I’m of the opinion that it would be deemed a failure if it weren’t for the prestige that comes with the property and DKL, despite the positive spin Nevins has tried to give for his investors’ benefit. But whether the show was marginally profitable or not, it certainly was not the type of financial success that caused Showtime to run good shows like Dexter and Homeland into the ground with too many seasons slapped together too quickly with too much micromanagement. I’m not sure if that was ever a danger (depends on the terms of L/F’s agreement with CBS/Showtime), but I’m personally grateful that the show wasn’t a runaway hit that would cause executives to start seeing green and worrying about how to minimize risk and adhere to the status quo going forward.
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mtwentz
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby mtwentz » Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:19 pm

Mr. Reindeer wrote:I tend to be skeptical that TP was financially rewarding for Showtime — based on the information we’ve been given, I’m of the opinion that it would be deemed a failure if it weren’t for the prestige that comes with the property and DKL, despite the positive spin Nevins has tried to give for his investors’ benefit. But whether the show was marginally profitable or not, it certainly was not the type of financial success that caused Showtime to run good shows like Dexter and Homeland into the ground with too many seasons slapped together too quickly with too much micromanagement. I’m not sure if that was ever a danger (depends on the terms of L/F’s agreement with CBS/Showtime), but I’m personally grateful that the show wasn’t a runaway hit that would cause executives to start seeing green and worrying about how to minimize risk and adhere to the status quo going forward.


Disclaimer: I am no expert on any of this but...

I would see Twin Peaks as more of a Loss Leader for Showtime than a Cash Cow. And if Showtime doesn't have the money for a few Loss Leaders, they might as well pack up their bags and go home: Netflix, Amazon, HBO all have money to burn. If you want to play with the big boys/girls, you've got to be ready to spend some $$$$. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

On the other hand, I may be wrong, maybe the uptick in subscriptions was sustained long enough to make Twin Peaks: The Return highly profitable. But I guess I would be a little surprised if that were the case, because Showtime did not have enough other content to keep most of us Peaks fans as subscribers (well at least not enough to keep me as a subscriber) once the DVD came out.

Which brings me to my main point: to the extent that The Return was not a complete financial success, it wasn't really the fault of The Return, it was the fault of the rest of Showtime's lineup. The Return did what it was supposed to, but it's not clear Showtime had enough other content ready to fully capitalize on the upsurge of subscriptions to create sustained subscription growth.
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Mr. Reindeer
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby Mr. Reindeer » Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:42 pm

That’s an interesting way of looking at it, MT, and might well have been part of the plan. IMO, more than anything, the show was a major component in Showtime’s attempt to raise its artistic reputation. For years, Showtime has been seen as HBO’s trashier sibling — some tremendously successful shows, but nothing with the artistic merit of, say, The Sopranos or The Wire. Showtime has been trying to change that with “classier” shows like The Affair and Masters of Sex (OK, so the titles don’t sound classy...). TP:TR fits that rebranding effort to a tee. I don’t think it was ever really about the money, although Showtime undoubtedly would have considered massive profits a nice bonus.
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yaxomoxay
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby yaxomoxay » Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:02 pm

mtwentz wrote:
Mr. Reindeer wrote:I tend to be skeptical that TP was financially rewarding for Showtime — based on the information we’ve been given, I’m of the opinion that it would be deemed a failure if it weren’t for the prestige that comes with the property and DKL, despite the positive spin Nevins has tried to give for his investors’ benefit. But whether the show was marginally profitable or not, it certainly was not the type of financial success that caused Showtime to run good shows like Dexter and Homeland into the ground with too many seasons slapped together too quickly with too much micromanagement. I’m not sure if that was ever a danger (depends on the terms of L/F’s agreement with CBS/Showtime), but I’m personally grateful that the show wasn’t a runaway hit that would cause executives to start seeing green and worrying about how to minimize risk and adhere to the status quo going forward.


Disclaimer: I am no expert on any of this but...

I would see Twin Peaks as more of a Loss Leader for Showtime than a Cash Cow. And if Showtime doesn't have the money for a few Loss Leaders, they might as well pack up their bags and go home: Netflix, Amazon, HBO all have money to burn. If you want to play with the big boys/girls, you've got to be ready to spend some $$$$. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

On the other hand, I may be wrong, maybe the uptick in subscriptions was sustained long enough to make Twin Peaks: The Return highly profitable. But I guess I would be a little surprised if that were the case, because Showtime did not have enough other content to keep most of us Peaks fans as subscribers (well at least not enough to keep me as a subscriber) once the DVD came out.

Which brings me to my main point: to the extent that The Return was not a complete financial success, it wasn't really the fault of The Return, it was the fault of the rest of Showtime's lineup. The Return did what it was supposed to, but it's not clear Showtime had enough other content ready to fully capitalize on the upsurge of subscriptions to create sustained subscription growth.


Good points, but you have to remember that Showtime viewers/subscriptions does not equal financial success. They sold the product to countless other TV channels in several countries, they certainly got some revenues from royalties, special products, exclusives etc around the globe. I am pretty sure that Blu-ray sales are doing quite decently worldwide and Showtime is certainly receiving greenbacks from everywhere. Ok, it’s not GOT or TWD from a financial standpoint, but I’d be surprised if Showtimes execs were dumb enough to think that it could’ve even make 1/100 of what other programs make. I think that the cow they milk is international attention (in Europe TP is pretty popular), long term royalties, and whatever comes from prestige (branding etc).


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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby mtwentz » Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:50 pm

yaxomoxay wrote:
mtwentz wrote:
Mr. Reindeer wrote: Good points, but you have to remember that Showtime viewers/subscriptions does not equal financial success. They sold the product to countless other TV channels in several countries, they certainly got some revenues from royalties, special products, exclusives etc around the globe. I am pretty sure that Blu-ray sales are doing quite decently worldwide and Showtime is certainly receiving greenbacks from everywhere. Ok, it’s not GOT or TWD from a financial standpoint, but I’d be surprised if Showtimes execs were dumb enough to think that it could’ve even make 1/100 of what other programs make. I think that the cow they milk is international attention (in Europe TP is pretty popular), long term royalties, and whatever comes from prestige (branding etc).


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Yes, I completely forgot about the international portion of the equation. as well as special products and etc. I might be the perfect example of why The Return could be quite profitable, even with a relatively small fanbase:

Since The Return was announced, I bought approximately 10 months of the Showtime subscription, a copy of the series on Blu-Ray, a digital copy of the series through Amazon, 2 CD copies of Music from Twin Peaks and one digital download of the same, and one CD of the Soundtrack. And I'm probably still not done, I might buy a regular DVD copy as well. Now you spread fans like me all over the world, and there is some real potential.
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yaxomoxay
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby yaxomoxay » Sat Jun 02, 2018 5:24 pm

mtwentz wrote:
yaxomoxay wrote:
mtwentz wrote:


Yes, I completely forgot about the international portion of the equation. as well as special products and etc. I might be the perfect example of why The Return could be quite profitable, even with a relatively small fanbase:

Since The Return was announced, I bought approximately 10 months of the Showtime subscription, a copy of the series on Blu-Ray, a digital copy of the series through Amazon, 2 CD copies of Music from Twin Peaks and one digital download of the same, and one CD of the Soundtrack. And I'm probably still not done, I might buy a regular DVD copy as well. Now you spread fans like me all over the world, and there is some real potential.


Exactly. Add royalties from people listening to the songs on Apple Music or Spotify or whatever, add Blu-ray special releases, and any sort of TP related item, Frost’s books, Funko Pops, and multiply for the various countries, and you get a decent cash cow. Certainly not a huge cash cow, but as long as they make $1 we’re in good shape. I am pretty sure that’s why CBS claimed good revenue from TP. I am pretty sure they even realize that something so particular as TP can’t be a year-by-year series but a long term prestige product in order to make money.

Another element is that now Showtime declared to all of Hollywood that it’s available to do crazy projects by great directors without total control by the producers, which I bet is the dream of many artists that are now working with Showtime on projects that we don’t know about yet.


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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby Mr. Reindeer » Sat Jun 02, 2018 5:28 pm

The goal of entertainment companies is not to make modest returns...plenty of so-called “bombs” have actually turned a healthy profit, but not the robust return on profit that is considered a success in Hollywood. I’m not denying that TP:TR made money for Showtime...just that if the property had been, say, Carnivalé, they likely would have cut their losses and buried it by this point.

I still haven’t seen any evidence that TP:TR is special in any regard when it comes down to pure numbers/dollars, be it viewership, subscriptions, product sales, etc. Sure, it may have moved some CDs, T-shirts, &c., but I haven’t seen any reason to believe that the numbers amount to more than any other series in the Showtime Store. I admittedly don’t recall reading anything about international numbers one way or the other (and DKL is famously more popular in France, Japan &c., so I’d be happy to be proven wrong if someone has hard numbers).

Again, I’m fine with the show being a modest earner. DKL has always been a relatively niche artist, and his films have always been more geared to critical praise and cult status than box office returns. This allows him to keep his artistic freedom. I predicted before the show aired that it would be a massive critical success and a very modest financial success, and I believe that has been borne out by everything I’ve heard/read. I think Showtime has other priorities with this property and would be happy to fund more, regardless of what it earns, so long as it’s not a complete sink-hole (which it almost certainly won’t be).
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby Jasper » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:42 pm

Mr. Reindeer wrote:I haven’t seen any reason to believe that the numbers amount to more than any other series in the Showtime Store.


Well, there's this:

/Film
January 7th, 2018
http://www.slashfilm.com/twin-peaks-season-4-2/
“There’s enormous promotional interest,” Nevins said. “There’s enormous consumer product interest, so yes. More than most of our shows, Twin Peaks has a consumer products angle that we’re not used to seeing. I don’t know if anyone’s been to the place on Melrose, the Road House. There’s constant interest in Twin Peaks and that’s one of the things we do talk to David about. I want him to have total control over every exploitation of the show.”

“We’re thrilled with Twin Peaks,” Levine said. “The work was extraordinary, the fan reaction was extraordinary and it was incredibly good for our brand."
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krishnanspace
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby krishnanspace » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:59 pm

It is happening again!!!
https://www.reddit.com/r/twinpeaks/comm ... ew_season/
:D
Second time this week
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Jasper
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby Jasper » Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:20 pm

krishnanspace wrote:It is happening again!!!
https://www.reddit.com/r/twinpeaks/comm ... ew_season/
:D
Second time this week


You know anyone can make an account on reddit and write anything they want, right? :lol:

This, on the other hand, I found genuinely surprising:

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N. Needleman
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby N. Needleman » Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:50 am

krishnanspace wrote:It is happening again!!!
https://www.reddit.com/r/twinpeaks/comm ... ew_season/
:D
Second time this week


Stop posting this. It's not funny.
AnotherBlueRoseCase wrote:The Return is clearly guaranteed a future audience among stoners and other drug users.
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mtwentz
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby mtwentz » Sun Jun 03, 2018 5:00 am

Jasper wrote:
Mr. Reindeer wrote:I haven’t seen any reason to believe that the numbers amount to more than any other series in the Showtime Store.


Well, there's this:

/Film
January 7th, 2018
http://www.slashfilm.com/twin-peaks-season-4-2/
“There’s enormous promotional interest,” Nevins said. “There’s enormous consumer product interest, so yes. More than most of our shows, Twin Peaks has a consumer products angle that we’re not used to seeing. I don’t know if anyone’s been to the place on Melrose, the Road House. There’s constant interest in Twin Peaks and that’s one of the things we do talk to David about. I want him to have total control over every exploitation of the show.”

“We’re thrilled with Twin Peaks,” Levine said. “The work was extraordinary, the fan reaction was extraordinary and it was incredibly good for our brand."


Everything in that article is pretty consistent with the case Mr. Reindeer has been making.
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krishnanspace
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Re: What's next? What chance do think there is we will see a season 4?

Postby krishnanspace » Sun Jun 03, 2018 5:32 am

N. Needleman wrote:
krishnanspace wrote:It is happening again!!!
https://www.reddit.com/r/twinpeaks/comm ... ew_season/
:D
Second time this week


Stop posting this. It's not funny.

Some idiot has been posting it again and again on Reddit

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